2011 Forecast for Eagle River Alaska

January 2011 has arrived and now its time to pull out the crystal ball, or the magic 8 Ball, whichever you think is most accurate.  Now is when I do much of my planning for the coming year.  In the past months we have celebrated the holidays, enjoyed our friends and family, and looked forward to dealing with a new year.

So what will 2011 be like?  Before we decide on our best guess we need to take a look at 2010 and 2009.  How have we fared in the past two years?  In Chugiak and Eagle River we have sold 971 single family homes (This does not include condos), 501 in 2009 and 470 in 2010; down 6.2%.  Not too bad considering that the market was down much more substantially in the lower 48 markets.  The average sales price was unchanged in the Chugiak market, but up 3% in Eagle River and the median sales price was up in both markets.*

The available homes on the market was up at the end of the year with approximately a 5 month supply of homes.  This was up from a 3 month supply at the end of 2009.  The numbers have dropped off now at mid month and when you remove the new construction to be built (homes that have not been started at this time).  Currently there is about 1/3 less homes available; however these number are sure to climb over the next 30 days.  This low number limits a buyers choice and they tend to look in Anchorage or the Mat-Su Valley, trying to find a home they can afford.

If we look at these numbers it is easy to suggest that 2011 will be a slow year, however I would like to point out that we are coming off several booming years.  Our market is more normalized now the ever before.  The sales rate will be steady and I think most client are looking for quality over quantity, a nicer home vs. a bigger home.  I have seen more people trending towards larger garages.  Banks will continue to be a speed bump in the selling process as the underwriting standards become stricter.

My forecast for 2011 is similar to many others I have heard, I believe the Eagle River and Chugiak markets will experience increases in the number of sales and valuation.  A tighter inventory will bring up the price for the home, and there will be more new homes built this year.  There will be less condos, and more single family homes. Here it is the magic number for our area, we will sell:

501 Homes

I really like the extra one!

 *Based on information from Alaska Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (AK MLS) for the period CY2009 and CY2010 but not compiled or published by AK MLS.  Listing content maintained by AK MLS may not reflect all real property activity in the market.